For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. He withdrew before the runoff. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. The candidate of Labour Party, Thaddeus Attah, has been declared the winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. . November 7: Toss-up races projected. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. House.[5]. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. 49 -1. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. However, our forecast does not take into account the specific seats that are on the ballot in 2022, only the numbers of Democratic and Republican seats. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. Colorado. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. File usage on Commons. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. We default to the Deluxe . Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. All 435 districts were up for election. The following table shows the number of U.S. House incumbents defeated in each election cycle from 2000 to 2022, by party. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. There were 35 U.S. House districts and one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022 that were effectively guaranteed to one major party because no candidate from the other party appeared on the general election ballot, accounting for 8.0% of all U.S. House races and 2.9% of all U.S. Senate races. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. MONTREAL, Que. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. You can also view these ratingsas a table. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. File. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! Democrats 36 seats not up for election. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Has no bearing on Senate elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the NRCC Patriot. 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